Wednesday, August 7, 2013

2013 Fantasy Football Preview: Running Backs

The 2013 Fantasy Football Preview continues with five interesting running backs.

Matt Forte - 1600 yards from scrimmage; 55 receptions; 10 total TDs.

Poised to thrive in a new offense.

Last season Matt Forte battled injuries and an inept Chicago offense that failed to properly utilize their best offensive weapon not named Brandon Marshall and still managed to put up solid numbers. First year coach Marc Trestman has revamped the Bears offense and has indicated that Forte will play a larger role both rushing and in the passing game. This would make him especially valuable in PPR leagues. However Michael Bush is still in the wings to poach Forte’s TD potential.

Forte’s 44 receptions last year were a career low - he has averaged 53 throughout his career. Assuming an uptick in targets Forte could set new career high in receptions and yards from scrimmage. If Forte can stay healthy, I think he will thrive in Trestman’s new offense and go OVER that stat line. Expect production along the lines of 1700 yards from scrimmage, 65 receptions and 10 TDs. 

More after the jump.

Monday, August 5, 2013

2013 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterback

Believe it or not fall is right around the corner and with it, the beginning of football season! Fantasy football drafting is in full swing for 2013. A good friend of mine and are authoring a series of articles previewing the most interesting fantasy players for the 2013 season. 

Here is the counterpoint article on his blog.
(Be sure to check out the rest of his blog)

And here is my full 2013 QB preview:

2013 Fantasy Quarterback Preview

Tom Brady: 4000 yds passing; 30 passing TDs; 8 INTs

Prepare for more disappointment in New England.

Tom Brady is and has been one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL since the early 2000s. Bill Belichick and Brady have teamed up to create an offensive juggernaut that has put up points and stats at a ridiculous pace. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and even Brandon Lloyd have been fantasy studs in the potent New England offense. However, after a New York Jets-esque offseason filled with drama and the signing of Tim Tebow (coincidence? I think not… ) the future of New England is filled with question marks.

Tom Brady’s #1 target, Wes Welker, has left the Patriots for Denver and Peyton Manning. Last year Welker accounted for 28% of Brady’s passing yards, and the year before that 30%. The Patriots have attempted to make up for the loss of Welker by signing Danny Amendola—a highly talented receiver with great hands and a high ratio of catches to targets. He has been described as “the poor man’s Welker” and he seems poised for a breakout year in New England; however, injuries have plagued him and he has yet to play a full season. If Amendola can stay healthy he has the ability to replace Welker, but with his injury history, that if is a big IF. The rest of the receiving corps after Amendola is underwhelming. Rookie Aaron Dobson has impressed in camp, but the rest have looked painfully inept.

The tight end situation is even more tenuous. With Aaron Hernandez cut and Rob Gronkowski likely out until Week 6 the Patriots have been running Jake Ballard and Tim Tebow out at tight end. Let that sink in. The duo of Hernandez and Gronkowski accounted for 26% of Brady’s passing yards last year. In 2011 it was a whopping 43%! If Gronkowski returns in Week 6 who knows what he will be able to do. Back injuries are difficult to predict, but Gronk is a beast when he plays and should help.

The loss, for good, of Hernandez and Welker, the absence of Gronkowski for who knows how long, and the high injury risk of Amendola and lack of alternative targets leaves Tom Brady’s fantasy value very clouded. I am going to have to predict that he will go UNDER that stat line. To be clear, I do not think Brady will be valueless in fantasy—a below average Brady is still going to be better than an Andy Dalton or Eli Manning—but do not expect the Tom Brady of 2011. I think that you can expect fantasy value more along the lines of 3700 yards, 27 TDs, and 8 INTs.

More after the jump

Friday, August 2, 2013

Changes Coming Soon

With law school over and the bar exam finished, I am finally going to be getting back to a semi-normal state of life. I've decided to resurrect this blog as a platform for some new projects I'll be working on including sports and fantasy sports articles, a series on the Catholic churches of Chicago, and any other random musings that may arise.

Hope you enjoy!